民主转型与政治暴力冲突的起落:以印尼为例
刘瑜;
摘要(Abstract)：
相较于"稳固时期的威权统治",民主转型初期常常是一个政治暴力风险上升的历史阶段。本文指出,尽管民主化同时蕴含暴力加剧和暴力缓解的逻辑机制,但在一个族群分裂的社会,由于民主化初期政治信任格外匮乏,其暴力加剧机制常常早于暴力缓解机制出现。那么,为什么即使在社会分裂的国家,转型期不同国家的暴力冲突水平仍然出现明显差异?即,为什么一些国家比另一些暴力冲突水平高得多?本研究聚焦于政治宽容这个因素,以此来解释多族群社会转型暴力水平的差异。在本文中,政治宽容包括大众文化和精英意识两个维度,并强调其相辅相成性。简单而言,政治宽容水平高的地方,暴力冲突水平低,反之则否。本文以印尼为例,对核心观点进行了论证与说明。
关键词(KeyWords)： 民主转型;民主化;转型暴力;政治冲突;政治文化;政治宽容;印尼政治
基金项目(Foundation): 清华大学自主科研计划资助项目“制度与文化的相互影响”(项目号:20165080061)的阶段性成果
作者(Authors): 刘瑜;
DOI: 10.16091/j.cnki.cn32-1308/c.2017.02.006
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- (1)当然并非没有例外,比如秘鲁在转型过程中出现了“光辉道路”武装起义,危地马拉的民主转型虽然没有引发内战,但在很长时间内没能够结束内战。
- (2)该研究即将发表于Social Science Quarterly(已被接受,等待刊号分配中),文章题目为“Is There A Tradeoff between Democratization And Stability?A Typological Analysis of the Third-Wavers,1974-2014.”
- (3)其中逻辑被称为“信息揭示机制”,即选举揭示各方的群众基础实力,从而减少因“误判”实力对比而发起的战争。
- (4)比如限制华人信奉自己的宗教、敦促他们采用印尼姓名、限制其经商地点等。
- (5)比如1984年的Tanjung Priok事件导致63人死亡。参见Varshney,2003.
- (6)Varshney(2003)的研究显示,1998年苏哈托下台之前一两年,各地的暴力冲突水平已明显上升,部分程度上证实Cheibub所说的,暴力冲突常常成为民主转型的催化剂,独裁者不得不接受民主来预防更大冲突,即民主和暴力冲突之间的内生性问题。
- (7)近年集体暴力爆发频率又有上升之势,尽管死亡人数并没有同步上升。参见Barron et al.,2014.
- (8)拉什迪是一个印度裔作家,因其作品对伊斯兰教的批评而被伊斯兰极端分子追杀。
- (9)比如,亚齐和西巴布亚可以截留70%的石油收入,而其他地区只能截留30%。
- (10)民主转型之后印尼开始逐步赋予华裔平等权利:禁止在公共场所使用汉语或庆祝中国节日的规定被解禁,春节被宣布为国家节日,儒教重新成为国家认可的宗教……与之相应的,是针对华人的暴力显著减少。当然,由于华人的经济优势以及相当一部分华裔的基督徒身份,印尼社会对华人的民间怨恨并未完全消失。